Cross-Posted from FLA Politics. This is a look at three key Senate races that are shaping up this election cycle in Florida. Currently Republicans hold a 26-14 seat advantage in the Senate. To win back the chamber before the next round of redistricting (Florida is likely to gain 2 seats) Democrats would likely need to win three seats this year and another three-four seats in 2010. Alternatively, we could go after the state House (Republicans lead 77-43).
Today I'm taking a look at three Senate races that I think Democrats have excellent shots at winning. Two of them are tough races against ethically challenged Republicans in swing districts and another is an open seat contest in an area where Democrats have started taking over in a matter of a couple years.
25th District
[Note: News has just come out that Skip Campbell is considering dropping out of the race. If this were to happen, our chances of picking up the seat would depend on the replacement candidate.]
On the top of everyone's radar will be the 25th district race that puts Republican incumbent Jeff Atwater against Democratic insurgent candidate Skip Campbell. The district takes in eastern Palm Beach and Broward counties on the coast, an area that recent Democratic presidential and congressional candidates have won. If there is such a thing as a swing district in Florida Senatorial politics, this is it.
Atwater has a huge campaign war chest (more than $1.6 million), but Campbell can self fund and already has high name recognition, being a former state Senator and the 2006 Democratic candidate for Attorney General of Florida. In that campaign, Campbell actually carried the 25th district, so if he can do it one more time, we'll have a new Democratic state Senator. Current polling already show him ahead. As an added bonus, Atwater is set to be Senate President so a victory here would be huge.
Besides the excellent knowledge and being on the right side of issues that Campbell brings to this race, the fact that Atwater is following in the steps of many other corrupt Republican officials should be enough for voters to reject him. Not only has he been caught accepting campaign contribution, while the legislature was in session (illegal in Florida), but he also was caught paying outsourcers thousands in taxpayer dollers, even while the state faced a budget shortfall. The last thing we need right now are more members in the legislature that play games with ethics and that's exactly what Jeff Atwater represents.
23rd District
In the 23rd district (open seat) Democrats now have a very credible candidate in Morgan Bentley, President of the Sarasota Bar Association. Bentley will take on either former Rep. Nancy Detert or current Rep. Michael Grant. This is a race I'm particularly interested in, because I would love to see Democrats continue to kick Republicans out of Sarasota County elected office. Democrats gained big in the county in 2006, including a Sarasota County victory by Christine Jennings, and then added icing on the top with huge special election victories last year in the Venice City Commission. Even the Republicans have been admitting their losses in the County.
“The Democrats have a reason to crow,” Sarasota Republican Party Chairman Eric Robinson said. “They won. The county is becoming more liberal.”
The three registered Democrats running did not simply beat three incumbent Republicans — they all won by more than 30 percentage points. That has Democrats proclaiming a new era of competitiveness in Sarasota County, fueling hope that next year they can win another legislative seat, countywide seats and more city races.
But in some ways, the victories were not surprising. They follow two years of steady gains by Democrats, during which registered Democrats have won the majority of seats on the Sarasota City Commission, picked up seats in the Legislature and won two countywide seats on the School Board and Charter Review Board.
In addition, Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate, Congress and chief financial officer all carried the county.
If we work on it, the 23rd will be a fun race to take from the Republican column in November and this one is an open race, so there is less of an incumbent advantage.
11th District
Finally, Vietnam veteran and Democratic candidate Fred Taylor will take on the ethically challenged Republican Senator Mike Fasano in the 11th district, which takes in the western portions of Citrus, Hernando, and Pasco counties and northern Pinellas County. This is an ideal swing district and has been known to support Democratic and Republican candidates in statewide elections. In the 2000 presidential race, there was a virtual tie at 48.5%. There are signs that the FDP is putting some attention into this race, with the presence of Taylor and a new Veterans caucus onstage at the JJ dinner.
The problem will be taking out an incumbent who has served previously in the state House and was elected to the Senate in 2002. Fasano has raised a more manageable $338,000 though and Taylor himself raised a respectable $14,000+ last quarter. It will be interesting to see what those figures are for the next quarter, but this is a race we should definitely watch and work on, because it's winnable, especially if 2008 turns into another vote out the bums election.
Right now I would say the 23rd and 25th districts will be the top races, but there is also a great chance the 11th district race will become competitive.
Candidates on the Web:
And a pickup in the range of 3-7 in the state House. Sadly it’s a dead cat bounce. We are still leaving far too many incumbents unchallanged.
Great diary. Sorry to hear about Skip Campbell, though.
For those wondering the State House in FL is much more likely to see big changes than the State Senate. There are countless FL House districts in high dem registration held by republicans. We do have quite a few good recruits running for FL state House this year, so if we do see a wave in FL we could see double-digit gains in that chamber.
Also of note is that FL does have term-limits. So there are always quite a few open seats which make turnover in seats more likely.
I did a count on the Florida House races for 2008 and here are the basics (using FL SOS Website):
Republicans running without Dem opposition – 35
Democrats running without Rep opposition – 28
Republican seats challenged by Dems – 42 (14 open seeats)
Democratic seats challenged by Reps – 15 (3 open seats)
I’ll dig in closer this weekend to see if I can figure out how many are truely competitive.